Ik heb al eerder een artikel gelinkt dat het niet lekker liep met dat deconflicteerkanaal tussen VS en RU.
Opnieuw komt naar boven dat communicatie bijzonder slecht is, en dat de vrees groeiende is dat de VS en RU slaapwandelend met elkaar in oorlog komen.
Het artikel probeert een vinger te leggen op de achterliggende reden van de roekeloosheid van de Russen in deze.
Repeated attempts by the United States’ top defense and military
leaders to speak with their Russian counterparts have been rejected by
Moscow for the last month, leaving the world’s two largest nuclear
powers in the dark about explanations for military movements and
raising fears of a major miscalculation or battlefield accident.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
and Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
have tried to set up phone calls with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu
and Gen. Valery Gerasimov but the Russians “have so far declined to
engage,” said Pentagon spokesman John Kirby in a statement
Wednesday.
The attempted calls by Austin and Milley, which have not previously
been reported, come as Russia conducts operations near the borders of
NATO members Poland and Romania while the United States and its
European allies conduct air-policing operations over the Baltic Sea
and pour weapons and equipment into Ukraine by ground transport.
Moscow and Washington maintain a deconfliction channel but current and
former officials say contact from higher-ranking military leaders is
needed to avoid unnecessary escalation or confusion.
“There is a high risk of escalation without the firebreak of direct
contact between the most senior officials,” said James Stavridis,
who served as the Supreme Allied Commander at NATO from 2009 to 2013.
“Very young people are flying in jets, operating warships, and
conducting combat operations in the Ukrainian war. They are not
seasoned diplomats, and their actions in the heat of operations can be
misunderstood.”
“We must avoid a scenario of NATO and Russia sleepwalking into war
because senior leaders can’t pick up a phone and explain to each
other what is happening,” he added.
In response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of
Ukraine, the West sanctioned some of his closest advisers. (Luis
Velarde/The Washington Post)
Russia’s recent use of hypersonic missiles and other sophisticated
weaponry against targets in western Ukraine have underscored the
threat of spillover into a broader confrontation.
“The risks are obviously elevated currently,” said Rob Lee, a
senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “Russia is
striking targets in western Ukraine, which are not far from the border
with NATO members, and the Ukrainian Air Force apparently continues to
operate from that region, which means there is a risk that its
aircraft could be mistaken for NATO aircraft across the border.”
U.S. defense officials have described the deconfliction phone line as
a tactical mechanism to avoid miscalculations, especially when it
comes to protecting NATO airspace or territory, but its functionality
can be limited.
“It’s not set up to be a complaint line where you can just call in
and just grouse about stuff,” said a U.S. defense official this week
when asked about whether anything had been communicated through the
channel. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity under ground
rules set by the Pentagon.
Sam Charap, a senior political scientist at Rand Corporation, said
calls by Austin and Milley serve a “fundamentally different
purpose” than the deconfliction channel.
“One is about tactical accident avoidance. The other about strategic
engagement,” he said. “It’s always important to maintain the
strategic level to communicate our interests clearly and better
understand theirs. When there’s no communication at that level,
their worst-case assumptions, often based on poor information, are
more likely to drive their behavior.”
As Russia’s battlefield setbacks become more pronounced and the
conflict nears its second month, U.S. officials are concerned that
Russian President Vladimir Putin may escalate militarily in the hopes
of changing the trajectory of the war. As more dangerous weaponry and
tactics are deployed, the risks of a wider conflict grow.
“A nightmare scenario would be a Russian missile or attack aircraft
that destroys a U.S. command post across the Polish-Ukrainian
border,” said Stavridis, a retired admiral. “A local commander
might respond immediately, thinking the event was a precursor to a
wider attack. This could lead to rapid and irreversible escalation, to
include potential use of nuclear weapons.”
Stavridis said when he was Supreme Allied Commander, he could dial his
Russian counterpart anytime “and did on several occasions to clarify
a situation and de-escalate.”
The Pentagon holds the view that engagement between the U.S. and
Russian defense leaders is “critically important at this time,”
Kirby said. Besides the deconfliction channel, the United States and
Russia can also engage through the defense attache at the U.S. Embassy
in Moscow or the relaying of messages to the Ministry of Defense.
Communications between the United States and Russia have been much
more sparse since the war began last month. The U.S. ambassador to
Russia, John J. Sullivan, has met with Russian officials most
frequently with on and off visits and calls in Moscow. President
Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, spoke to his
counterpart, Nikolay Patrushev, last week for the first time since the
start of the conflict. Some U.S. and Russian military officials met
last week at the Russian Ministry of Defense, CNN first reported.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has not attempted any conversations
with his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, since
the start of the conflict, according to U.S. officials.
It remains unclear why Russia’s top generals have refused to hold
calls with their U.S. counterparts.
“I suspect that the problem lies with the Russian insistence that
this is a ‘special military operation’ and unwillingness to admit
the real nature of the war,” said Angela Stent, a Russia scholar at
Georgetown University who served as a senior intelligence officer in
the Bush administration.
The generals may also be waiting on Putin’s approval to make the
calls, given the high stakes of the conflict, and he may not be
signing off, Charap said.
Another theory is that Putin may now view the United States as a
determined adversary bent on his downfall and not worth engaging.
Russian officials bristled at Biden calling Putin a “war
criminal,” saying it could lead to a complete break in relations.
Biden has sought to avoid a conflict by keeping U.S. troops out of
Ukraine and U.S. aircraft out of its airspace.
“You’re talking about avoiding incidents with aircraft or at
sea,” said Ben Hodges, a retired Army officer who served as
commanding general of the U.S. Army Europe. “I’m sure they
would’ve wanted to convey to Gerasimov and Shoigu that Russian
pilots should not be launching missiles too close to the Polish
border, but they would also want to talk about other places, not just
Ukraine, where you have Russian aircraft.”
“I would also imagine they would want to convey — here’s what
we’re doing, don’t interpret what we’re doing as a provocative
act,” he added.