Goed, ff met chatGPT wat scenarios doorgesproken. De plannen voor Max:
Plan A — Double-Soft Undercut
Open on a scrubbed C6, fuel-load trimmed for an extra 0.4 s/lap. If we cannot launch past Piastri into Sainte-Dévote, box as early as lap 10; the out-lap on a second C6 warms in half a sector while the leaders are still sliding on worn tyres. Clear air plus Red Bull’s 2.2 s average stop buys about 1.5 s per lap; within six laps Max leaps the stack once they pit. Second stop comes around lap 42 for a C4 medium—gives track position insurance to the flag and satisfies the two-compound rule. Time in traffic is nil, tyre life to the end is ample, and we hold a spare C6 set in case of late Safety Car. Risk: if the lap-10 call triggers a chain-reaction everyone pits behind us and we slot back into traffic, the move fizzles.
Plan B — Medium-Start Overcut With Safety-Car Trigger
Launch on the yellow C5-labelled medium. Its warm-up is slower, so the getaway is defensive, but we trade that for the ability to run to lap 35 at genuine quali-trim pace once fuel burns off. Leaders on softs will be six-tenths slower from lap 18 onward; they must pit into traffic or risk an under-undercut. The 57 % probability of a Safety Car makes this sweet: if Bernd Mayländer appears between laps 15-30 we pit for C6 softs, re-join in clean air and bank the reduced delta, then splash a second soft set inside the final 15 laps for qualy-pace attacks on Norris/Leclerc. Risk: no Safety Car before lap 30 means we spend 15 laps staring at their dirty air, losing the overcut edge.
Plan C — Red-Flag Opportunist
Stay on the C6 soft but run deliberately long—lap 25 or later—praying for the classic Monaco pile-up or a Bearman-style barrier kiss. If a red flag lands after we’ve left the pits once, we bolt on a second compound for free and still owe only one stop. With the field neutralised Max restarts in full attack mode on fresh C4 mediums while rivals ahead still need a third set. The moment they pit under green we inherit track position. A late micro-stop for a third tyre set around lap 60 seals compliance and gives fresh rubber for last-gasp defence. Risk: no red flag, and we’ve voluntarily sunk 40 s in two full-price stops with zero overtakes to show—worst-case is P4 parade.
Choosing the play
Look at lap-one telemetry: if Max’s launch and initial tyre temps are strong, pull the Plan A trigger before Piastri blocks the pit-window. If tyre warm-up looks poor, pivot to Plan B and play the Safety-Car odds. Should we spot carbon fibre in Mirabeau’s exit camera or cars three-wide into the Hairpin, stay out and bet on Plan C. The beauty of two compulsory stops is flexibility—call the first one to create clean air, and keep the second in your pocket for whatever Monaco throws.
Norris and Tsunoda
Expect Norris to treat track position like a Fabergé egg and Tsunoda to treat the tyre rule like a live hand-grenade. Norris will try to stay first by pinning everyone behind his out-laps; Tsunoda will try to get rid of both mandatory stops before half-distance and pray for chaos.
What Norris is likely to do
McLaren’s simulations say the safest path is soft–soft–medium. But starting on the red-walled C6 leaves him vulnerable if Leclerc undercuts. I’m betting McLaren flips and starts him on the C5 medium, then:
1. Run to roughly lap 25 in clean air, banking a six-second gap while Leclerc’s softs fade.
2. Box for C6 softs, emerging behind one or two back-markers but still ahead of Leclerc’s Ferrari after its own first stop.
3. Stretch that second stint just enough that any lap-40–60 Safety Car gives a cheap final stop for fresh mediums.
This covers every realistic undercut window, keeps clear air for both stints and leaves Norris the tyre with the fastest warm-up (soft) when he rejoins. McLaren hate the idea of double-stacking under a yellow because one botched stop ruins both driver’s races, so they’d rather pit Lando on a quiet lap and let Piastri fend for himself.
If there’s an early Safety Car (lap 1-10) the pole-sitter can’t risk a stacked double-stop; he’d lose the lead to anyone who stays out. Expect Lando simply to crawl the field, preserve track position and bite his lip over tyre temps. The whole plan collapses only if he flunks the launch and Leclerc leads into Sainte-Dévote; then McLaren would probably pull the lap-1 stop bluff to create an undercut threat.
What Tsunoda is likely to do
Starting P12 with nothing to lose, RB will roll the dice the moment the red lights go out. Two methods sit on their strategy wall:
Lap-1 double shuffle – Pit at the end of lap 1 for mediums, go straight back in next lap for hards. The whole field is still nose-to-tail so the time loss is ~19 s per stop instead of 21-22 s, and you emerge dead last but in clean air. From there Yuki can lap at quali mode, undercut the mid-field and get back to P10-ish by the time everyone else has served their first stop. A mid-race Safety Car turns that into P7. Risk: if the race stays green to the flag he’ll still need to pass on-track and the RB01 is allergic to hairpin traction.
Reverse overcut – Start on hards, ignore the lap-1 temptation, run to lap 45 while the pack self-destructs in dirty air. Safety-Car drops between laps 15-40 give him a cheap switch to mediums, then a late splash for softs around lap 60 lets him attack heavier cars that are praying for their second stop under yellow. This hinges on Safety-Car roulette but fits Tsunoda’s style: he wants maximum grip for late-race lunges and figures a wall is better than a parade.
Given the driver’s mood and the fact he’s down on spec compared with Imola, RB will probably green-light the harder-compound opening stint; it keeps him out of traffic and away from temp spikes that caught him in Q2.
Why it matters to Max
Norris defending clean air means Verstappen’s undercut against the McLaren hinges on Red Bull nailing Tsunoda when he meets Max on track. If Tsunoda’s early pit gambit succeeds he’ll be nowhere near his senior stable-mate. If he’s on the long first stint he may unwittingly hand Lando a buffer by re-joining right in front of the Red Bull. In other words: Tsunoda is either Verstappen’s gift or his headache, and the lap-1 choices from RB’s pit wall decide which.
That’s what I see coming: a risk-averse Norris choreographing the race from the front while a grumpy Tsunoda tears up any script he can touch, all filtered through the chaos tax of a mandated two-stop Monaco.
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of voor de laatste bocht?
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Wel graag achterin het veld dan... /u/324913/crop56a24cce05cd3_cropped.png?f=community)
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Dit topic is gesloten.
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