defiant schreef op zaterdag 19 april 2025 @ 11:31:
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En welk vorm van toenadering de VS ook zoekt met Rusland, Rusland zal het doel van het ondermijnen van de VS niet loslaten. Zo'n toenadering zal gezien worden als zwakte. En dat is de reden waarom de hele strategie van de VS niet rationeel is als je het bekijkt vanuit die hoek.
Want, als men terug wil naar grootmachten en invloedssferen die elkaar bestrijden, waarom zou 1 grootmachtig volledig vrijwillig z'n eigen invloedsfeer opofferen en gunnen aan de ander?
De logica ontgaat mij ook maar Trump is effectief Putin aan het helpen. Wie daar heel scherp op is, is Philips P. O'Brien. In zijn laatste newsletters komt hij met de volgende punten:
De VS legt Oekraïne droog voor wat betreft Patriots
Hij bracht dit in zijn newsletter van
17 April.
Ukraine is desperate to purchase Patriot anti-air missiles, as the Ukrainians are running out of this vital system. These were provided (too late) by the Biden Administration in 2023.
And the very effectiveness of the Patriots has provided Trump with a weapon to help kill Ukrainians. Even being sparing in their usage, Ukraine is running out. Patriots are an American system and the USA has been the source of most of the missiles. Right now there is no new US aid on its way to Ukraine. All we have had in 2025 is the left-over amounts of Biden Administration aid, whereas Trump and the GOP Congress have made no efforts to get any more aid for Ukraine—and that reality is not changing.
Hier onder geeft hij aan wat een andere achterliggende reden kan zijn dat Rusland nu haar ballistische raketten inzet, terwijl ze die zelf ook niet veel meer heeft. Na de voorbeelden die Phillips noemt hebben we vorige week uitgebreid over een ander voorval gesproken:
Russia understands this and is trying to make Ukraine use up all of its Patriots missiles. In the last few weeks the Russians have been using some of their advanced ballistic missiles against Ukrainian civilian targets, from Sumy last week (see picture above) to Kryvyi Rih the week before, to Dobropillia a little before that.
This seems very much to be a deliberate, targeted campaign to terrorize Ukrainian civilians and force the Ukrainians to use up their dwindling stock of Patriot missiles.
Dit heeft als resultaat dat Oekraïne koste wat kost Patriots wil kopen. Een aantrekkelijk vooruitzicht voor de Amerikaanse wapen industrie zou je denken:
The Ukrainians are desperately trying to get their hands on more Patriots—and its reached the stage that they are willing to pay whatever it takes to get more. Zelensky told CBS news that he wanted to buy up to 10 new Patriot systems and their missiles, which would be a major win for the US defense economy. Zelensky said he wanted to buy 10 U.S.-made Patriot systems — worth $1.5 billion each — to shield Ukrainian cities from relentless Russian missile and drone strikes.
Maar nu komt de aap uit de mouw, die Trump is dus niet alleen op zoek naar een goeie deal:
Trump, however, working hand in hand with Putin, is refusing to sell them—even though that would benefit US workers and help the US economy. Indeed, in the last few days he has started boasting about the fact that Ukraine is desperate to buy more Patriots, and he is refusing to make a deal. Two days ago he told an
Oval Office press conference.
Ook de EU hebben bij de Amerikanen aangedrongen op het verhandelen van Patriots, op kosten van EU (50m Miljard) ten bate van Oekraïne.
And it was just reported in Das Bild that the EU made it known that the would support a $50 billion weapons purchase for Ukraine from the USA—including Patriots.
Trump, naturally has refused.
Het willen maken van goeie deals is dus nooit Trumps doel geweest:
Remember months ago, when those who said that Trump would definitely be willing to help Ukraine by selling them weapons? Well it turns out that was another lie.
Philips trekt tenslotte een grote broek aan, maar wat is ertegen in te brengen:
So here we have it. The USA (Trump is the duly elected president with the support of Congress—so this is the official position of the US government) is now working together with the Russian government to see more Ukrainians killed. The USA is encouraging a Russian missile campaign against Ukrainian civilians by letting the Russians know that the US will deprive Ukraine of the means to defend those civilians and no longer provide Ukrainian Patriots.
Trump stapt opzij van het Rusland Oekraïne conflict
Als ondertitel
We Are Getting Closer And Closer To The US Getting Back To Business With Russia
Dit schreef Philips op
18 April.
Over de doelstelling voor waar Trump de afgelopen maanden mee bezig is geweest:
Trump’s priority was never to achieve peace, it was always to end the war on the best terms for Russia. And that means what the US has been doing is bullying Ukraine into a terrible deal which would give Russia Ukrainian territory, end sanctions on Russia, and provide Ukraine no meaningful security guarantees.
Hij heeft daarvoor het volgende argument:
If Trump was going to bring an end to the fighting (an extraordinarily difficult task) it was going to have to be because of a subtle and intelligent application of US power to make both sides believe he has a plan. Alas, he does not and never did. His plan has always been to step away from Ukraine and move closer to Russia.
Dit heeft voor ons Europeanen grote impact omdat de internationale machtsconstellatie niet in het voordeel van de EU en Oekraïne verandert.
And his plan seems to be reaching a tipping point whichmeans European states might soon be confronted with an entirely different war in Ukraine, one they should have been preparing for for at least a year, but instead one that they have wilfully pretended would never happen. This is the great crisis that we have been moving almost inevitably towards since Trump returned to the White House.
We hebben allemaal toeschouwer kunnen zijn van hoe de afgelopen dagen het Trump regiem voor zichzelf een escape route uit de onderhandelingen fabriceerde. In het volgende verkent Philips wat daar de mogelijke consequenties van kunnen zijn. Zie het als een slecht scenario. Wel een waar we rekening mee moeten houden:
The repercussions of this could alter the war—in ways Europe is not yet ready to face. Trump saying that the US is “done” does not mean US neutrality in the war. It almost certainly means the US getting back to business with Russia, maybe even ending all sanctions that it can, while at the same time giving no more aid to Ukraine. Even while trying to broker a deal, Trump has been refusing to sell arms to Ukraine.
Argumenten die dit ondersteunen:
As this is being written, reports are coming out that part of the “peace” package that Trump is trying to force on Ukraine now involves and
end of sanctions on Russia.
Again, this should be no surprise. Trump has been angling to end sanctions on Russia for years. In the middle of the Presidential campaign, he made an
explicit pitch to weaken sanctions on Russia. In a September speech he said: “I want to use sanctions as little as possible….You’re losing Iran, you’re losing Russia. China is out there trying to get their currency to be the dominant currency,”“There’s so much conflict with all these countries that you’re going to lose” the dominance of the dollar.”
Everything he has done since becoming President has shown how committed he was to this. He has talked repeatedly about restoring business links with Russia, and his personal envoy, Steve Witkoff, has spent hours negotiating with the Russians, partly about getting back to business. Trump is chomping at the bit to end sanctions on Russia.
Wat betekend het voor het Rusland-Oekraine conflict zou de VS weer handel opstarten met Rusland en de sancties zou gaan afbouwen? Het conflict wordt dan getransformeerd:
If Trump does end, or even just seriously water down sanctions on Russia—the war could be transformed. Basically Russia would then receive the open or tacit backing of both of the superpowers of the moment—China and the USA. That would be unprecedented, and I think explains why Russia has been so desperate to continue with the war even in the face of their losses. Russia will be backed by the majority of the world’s economic and military might.
Mede om deze reden gaf ik enkele dagen terug aan dat nu het moment er is dat de EU met haar economische macht de VS voor het blok zet, in een poging deze beweging richting Rusland te voorkomen:
Europe and Ukraine will be left alone. European leaders will no longer have the luxury of pretending everything will be alright in the end. They will either have to act with energy and decisiveness to support Ukraine, or we could see the end of a liberal and democratic Europe.
De Russen staan stil
In zijn bijdrage van
vandaag benadrukte Philips P. O'Brien dat de Russen het op het slagveld moeilijk hebben. Dit hebben we kunnen meemaken, want dat er een Russisch lenteoffensief zou zijn begonnen zou bijna
aan je aandacht kunnen zijn ontsnapt. Dit kan echter veranderen als handel tussen Rusland en de VS tot stand komt en sancties vanuit de VS worden opgeheven. Zonder backing van de VS winnen de Russen dit niet:
The Russians started a Spring Offensive a few weeks ago, and so far they have little to show for it. Russian advances have been small and extremely costly for them. Reports are that Russian forces are running short of some vehicles. Had the USA elected a president who wanted to help Ukraine, the war would be heading in a far more positive direction. However, what we can see is how Trump’s election mattered so much. His tenure in the White House has been a huge boon to Putin and allowed the Russians to consider pressing forward in their present way with the hope that the USA is changing sides. I do not think we can underrate that.
Tot begin dit jaar zijn in de VS een aantal stukken verschenen die illustreren hoe bij de Amerikanen het narratief binnen was gekomen dat de Russen, ofschoon traag, onherroepelijk door zouden veroveren, en dat Oekraine op het punt van instorten stond. Deze stukken verschenen in de Angelsaksische pers bij gerespecteerde media (o.a. BBC, Washington post).
Ik vroeg mij enkele dagen terug af waarom de Amerikanen met zulke urgentie de onderhandelingen wilden forceren. Waarom die haast, waarom zo'n deadline? Een onderhandelingstruc? Druk zetten?
Een reden hiervoor kan zijn dat de Russen op een punt zijn gekomen dat ze niet verder meer komen en dit aan de wereld duidelijk wordt. We hebben het hier dus niet over raketaanvallen, droneaanvallen en terreur, maar het veroveren van gebied, voortgang in het veroveren van Oekraine. Heel verbazingwekkend is dit niet. De vorige Amerikaanse regering die nog waarachtige informatie deelde noemde 2025 als het jaar dat de Russen stil zouden vallen.
Definitie stilvallen:
Binnen Oekraine is heel weinig voortgang geweest in 2025:
Oekraine gecentreerd op Pokrovsk, 01 Januari 2025
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Oekraine gecentreerd op Pokrovsk, 20 April 2025
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In dit gebrek aan voortgang kan Koersk nog worden genoemd, waar de Russen veel effort naartoe hebben moeten kanaliseren. Koersk is nu geen factor meer bij de Russische capaciteit. Dat maakt het gegeven dat de Russen in hun nieuwe offensief ook niet opschieten des te schrijnender:
The even more telling thing is that this one gain happened early in 2025, Over the past 2-3 weeks, which has seen the start of a new Russian offensive, with attack numbers up across different parts of the line—Russian advances have been almost indiscernible. A kilometer here and there, but nothing of note
And Russian losses have remained extremely high as Russian gains have slowed. In the last few months Russian soldier losses have averaged around
1200-1500 per day and there are indications that the vehicle crunch that Russia was going to face when it started running out of usable vehicle in storage was approaching. Certainly,
Russian tanks are becoming much scarcer and scarcer on the battlefield.
Wat we zien gebeuren is dat de massale aanwezigheid van drones een Russische veroveringsoorlog (verder) onmogelijk maakt:
The reality of the war is that the mass production of drones—combined with legacy defensive weapons systems such as artillery and manpads—were handing Ukraine an attritional advantage at the end of 2024 and into 2025. The Russians were being engaged further and further behind the lines by Ukrainian UAVs that made any kind of large offensive action not only difficult, but extremely costly.
In
The Atlantic heeft Phillips samen met Elloit Cohen al in maart betoogd dat Rusland deze oorlog aan het verliezen is. Maar dat was nog even buiten de Trump regering gerekend.
The problem, as that article highlighted, was that the Trump administration seemed more than willing to throw those advantages away for Ukraine. And that is where we find ourselves now. The first few months of 2025 have shown that Ukraine was nowhere near collapse, that Russian advances were not to be unstoppable and inexorable, and that Ukraine is actually capable of winning the war.
The big change in the war is that the USA is no longer a supporter of Ukraine under Trump. No new aid has been approved and the administration seems set on getting a good deal for Putin—which includes putting massive pressure on Ukraine.
In other words, if Donald Trump had not been elected President and the USA has stayed as a strong supporter of Ukraine, willing to provide a great deal of military aid to Ukraine while ramping up sanctions on Russia, Ukraine could have planned on a 2025 in which they inflicted massive losses on a Russian war machine.
Dankzij de US lijkt nu het Oekraiense overwicht ons te ontglippen:
Now, however, we have a USA trying to help Putin—and that is the single most important development in the war. It could take what was an improving position for Ukraine and help Russia a great deal. Just as Russian advances are increasingly slowing, the Russians can look forward to getting back to business with the USA soon (which will have second and third order effects on other countries that could be very ominous for Europe). The American people have done Putin a great service.
Resume
This US-Russia pact is a terrible deal for Ukraine (and Europe) and there are signs that not just the Ukrainians, but also some Europeans, are opposed to agreeing to it. This has caused the US government to threaten to walk away. First Marco Rubio said before his talks in Paris that if an agreement was not reached soon, Trump would say the US was “done” and walk away. This was part of a US negotiating strategy that saw Rubio and Witkoff go to Paris to try and get European support for the US vision. Here they are meeting with Macron two days ago.
Nog maar een keer mijn punt van een paar dagen terug herhalend: Als de EU een stap in de machtspolitiek zou willen zetten, dan is dit HET moment. De US moet te verstaan krijgen dat de economische macht van de EU een pact met Rusland voor de VS heel vervelend kan laten uitpakken.
offtopic:
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Voor 10% gewijzigd door
teacup op 21-04-2025 18:26
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Maar is dat misschien het enige wat haalbaar is. 
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