Iedereen schreeuwde om Leopards 2. Uiteindelijk gaat Duitsland/Scholz door de knieën en worden 88 Leopard 2 tanks toegezegd. Jippie
Maar nu komt puntje bij paaltje. 88 Leopard 2 tanks verzamelen blijkt een serieus probleem te zijn. Er zijn er iets van 3600 van gemaakt maar 88 "combat ready" 2A6 exemplaren verzamelen is toch wel een dingetje.
Full text translated:
The German government has launched a hectic diplomatic offensive to realize the planned delivery of Leopard 2 battle tanks for two tank battalions to Ukraine.
According to SPIEGEL information, doubts are growing in both the chancellery and the defense ministry as to whether the plans announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) can still be implemented as planned due to a lack of delivery commitments from other European partners. Government circles confirmed the problems. "Putting together the battalions is turning out to be an arduous feat," they said.
Scholz announced just over a week ago that Germany, together with other European nations, would deliver Leopard-2 weapon systems for two tank battalions to Ukraine by the end of March.
Within NATO, such a unit comprises 44 main battle tanks. In the Ukrainian military, however, the number of 31 tanks is considered a benchmark. Germany is providing 14 Leopard 2 A6 tanks from the Bundeswehr for the weapons package, and the troops are holding five more tanks in reserve in Germany. They are to be used in case of failures.
After Scholz's decision, which came only after prolonged wrangling with the U.S., the Defense Ministry had immediately begun talking to EU nations such as Poland. Warsaw had previously publicly declared its willingness to supply Leopard tanks of the older type 2 A4, putting Berlin under considerable pressure.
At a video conference hosted last week by new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), no EU country was willing to make concrete commitments to participate in a package of more modern Leopard 2 A6 models. Even the Dutch government, which had already promised a delivery in the media, would not commit itself in the switch.
The German government is now once again in an awkward position due to the hesitation of its partners. It is true that the Chancellor's Office had roughly discussed the idea for the two battalions with some partners before the announcement. But it did not ask for firm commitments or even written declarations on concrete participation in the tank packages.
Now it is said at government headquarters that those European partners who had previously been most vociferous in their demands for Leopard deliveries were unwilling to make a binding commitment. For Chancellor Scholz, this is likely to reinforce his fear that many announcements only served to drive Berlin before him.
The rough plans for the two battalions initially sounded realistic.
For example, the German government had outlined that one of the units would be equipped with Leopard-2 A6 models from the Bundeswehr. To end up with 31 or even 40 tanks for one unit, the Netherlands would then have to hand over a similar number of Leopard 2 A6 models that it currently has on lease from Germany in the German-Dutch Corps. Had everything gone according to plan, other nations like Portugal would have completed the package with a handful of Leopard 2 A6s each.
So far, however, none of the European partners has come forward with a firm commitment. According to SPIEGEL, the German government has therefore been engaged in a real tank poker game since the beginning of the week. According to the report, even the chancellor picked up the phone and persuaded three heads of government from northern and southern Europe to finally make firm commitments.
Defense Minister Pistorius was apparently even more active. According to SPIEGEL, he urged several of his counterparts every day to finally show their colors. According to the report, the German Foreign Office is also involved in weapons diplomacy. Minister Annalena Baerbock has activated her Political Director Tjorven Bellmann for this purpose.
Because of the lack of commitments, some of the officials involved already see black for the European tank package. "The only Leopards that will actually be ready with trained crews at the end of March will be the Bundeswehr tanks," one of the experts said Friday.
In the Chancellor's Office, however, one still hopes that some nations can be brought on board by the direct approach and that the two battalions will be equipped by the end of March. However, it is currently no longer considered realistic to equip the two units with around 40 tanks; instead, the number of units in Ukraine of 31 tanks per battalion will be used as a guideline.
The timeline for a solution is tight. The Bundeswehr wants to start training Ukrainian tank crews in just over a week, and the troops are already urgently looking for soldiers with appropriate language skills within their own ranks. Until then, however, at least that is how the military sees it, the Bundeswehr would have to know which other nations are still participating.
In the best case, the training could then be organized jointly or at least largely synchronized, according to the planners in Minister Pistorius' house. The idea is to complete the training in six to eight weeks.
The deployment of the second battalion, which is to be equipped with the somewhat older Leopard 2 A4, is also proving tough. Apparently, Poland has agreed to provide a good dozen Leopard 2 A4s, but Warsaw does not want to provide training or spare parts packages, which are mandatory for combat operations.
Meanwhile, no or only small commitments have yet come from the other nations that were scheduled to participate in the Leopard 2 A4 battalion.
Spain, for example, confirmed that it could supply a handful of the older Leopard 2 A4 tanks. Finland, on the other hand, does not seem to want to deliver at all. Finland points out that it needs the tanks for its long border with Russia.
At present, no one in Berlin wants to say whether the two packages will be delivered. None of the partners can be forced to deliver, according to officials working on a solution. Not without irony, they point out that it is now becoming apparent that the tank stocks of many other nations are much worse off than those of the Bundeswehr. German troops have had a tank readiness rate of around 70 percent for years. This value, however, is clearly undercut by the Southern Europeans in particular, it was said in Berlin. As a result, some nations cannot commit to anything, even with the good will of the respective government.
In Berlin, the military is already working on alternatives because of the unfortunate situation.
For example, they are currently frantically checking whether 19 somewhat older Leopard 2 A5 models, which actually only simulate the enemy during Bundeswehr maneuvers, can still be integrated into the Leopard 2 A6 battalion after some modifications. Sweden also still has some of the models, which is why Berlin has also put out feelers here. The Swedish Ministry of Defense confirmed that it was examining its own stocks, but that nothing had been decided. For Sweden, on the other hand, the issue is a sensitive one, since it depends on Turkey's goodwill to join NATO. Ankara, however, strictly rejects tank deliveries.
Chancellor Scholz has a lot at stake in the coming days. For months, he has been castigated in Europe and the U.S. as a ditherer on the Leopard issue. Now he faces the accusation that he did not properly prepare his tank decision, for which he had taken a lot of time. The fact that Scholz had praised himself several times after the announcement a good week ago for his deliberate but well thought-out course on tank deliveries could now come back as a political boomerang.
Strategists in the defense department are also aware of this risk. "If the plans for the battalions fail," says one of them, "Berlin will once again be the bogeyman."
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FreeTheLeopards!
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