Het Russisch zomeroffensief valt een beetje tegen (in vergelijking met eerdere offensieven) maar de Russen blijven versterkingen aanvoeren:
Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine underwhelms – but Kyiv won’t be celebratingFor months the talk in Kyiv was of a much-anticipated Russian offensive that would aim to gobble up more of the Ukraine’s eastern regions. So far, it’s been underwhelming – but the Russians have made some gains and vastly reinforced their troop numbers in some areas.
Zoals het er nu naar uitziet gaat zal de oorlog verder gaan in 2026.
The Kremlin has long insisted its campaign will continue until it holds all of the eastern Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. (It already occupies all but a sliver of Luhansk).
At the current rate of progress that would take many years. But with the Trump administration apparently less committed to driving ceasefire negotiations, the conflict seems likely to drag on through the end of the year and into 2026.
Ook drone warfare blijft verder ontwikkelen.
Drone warfare is a “constant intellectual struggle — the enemy regularly changed algorithms, and Ukraine adapted tactics in response,” Umerov said. “Solutions that showed high effectiveness at the beginning of the war have lost it over time as the enemy changed tactics.”
For its part, Ukraine is stepping up production of the long-range drones it has used to attack Russian infrastructure, such as airfields, refineries and transport. Umerov said “tens of thousands” would be produced, in addition to more than four million battlefield drones this year.
Voor Rusland is de oorlog duur.
Russia’s military budget is some 40% of its total public spending – more than 6% of its GDP. That’s stoked inflation, and Putin acknowledged last week that growth this year would be “much more modest” to combat rising prices. He even suggested that defense spending would decline next year.
One senior Russian official, Maksim Reshetnikov, who is Economic Development minister, said that “based on current business sentiment, it seems to me we are on the brink of transitioning into recession.”
The head of Russia’s Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, disagreed with Reshetnikov but warned that financial buffers like the national reserve fund are nearly depleted.
Met geen eind in zicht zal de Europese Commissie heel waarschijnlijk de tijdelijke bescherming van Oekraïense vluchtelingen nogmaals verlengen:
Voorstel verlenging Richtlijn tijdelijke bescherming tot en met 4 maart 2027
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