Linkin? Daar moet ik binnenkort heen, in Arnhem.
Post van Marijn 6mnd geleden:
With the current developments in the gas market and taking into account future legislation, I don’t think there’s a rational reason (anymore) to buy a gas boiler instead of a heat pump. I may be biased leading the biggest heat pump company in NL, but hear me out:
Now (end of 2024): Gas prices at the highest point of the year
1. Gas prices are at the highest point of this year due to the geopolitical situation and low supply (source: 1)
2. At the same time, electricity prices are declining due to the increasing supply of clean energy like solar and wind.
3. This results in the highest gas/electricity price ratio since summer 2023
4. This results in an even further decreasing payback period for heat pumps (they save on gas and consume some electricity)
In the past 6 months the ratio gas/electricity price for energy contract prices (source: 2) went up from ~3.5 to ~4.8!
2025 - 2030: (EU) legislation will further drive gas prices up in the next few years:
2026: Obligation to mix in “green gas”. From 2026 onwards, utility companies must mix natural gas with green gas. This will increase gas prices. A recent report from Wageningen Economic Research expects an increase of 17 cents per m3 (about +13%)(source: 3).
20272027 ETS2 will get into effect. This means that the CO2 emitted by gas will be taxed. The European Commission expects consumers to pay about 10 cents extra per m3.
That said, if you buy a gas boiler today it won’t reach its full lifespan anymore given the goals of the EU to reduce fossil fuel consumption by 80% in 2040:
A lot has been said about the EU 2030 climate goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 55%. Note that in 2040, the goal is to reduce to 90% and reduce fossil fuel consumption by 80%.
Taking into consideration heavy industry, shipping, and flying - you don’t have to be a clairvoyant to know that domestic heating won’t be using the 20% fossil fuels left by 2040.
2040 seems far away. But note that if you buy a gas boiler with a lifespan of 15-20 years today, you will have to dispose of your new gas boiler before it has been fully depreciated.
P.S. Living in the Netherlands and considering buying a heat pump? Get a non-binding quote now to leverage the current high subsidy that still applies when you install in 2025:
www.quatt.io
Sources:
1. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (2024). European Gas Market Supply & Demand: Winter Outlook 2024/25.
2. Based on the average energy prices calculated on the rates for new variable energy contracts from the 19 largest energy suppliers in the Netherlands.
3. Wageningen Economic Research (2024). Impactanalyse ETS-II opt-in.
<grafiekje met stijgende gasprijzen>
WP: Quatt 4,5kW hybride monoblock op garagedak, T6, radiatoren met 25gr Speedcomforts. PV: 15x 320Wp ZZO, PhonosolarMWT met SolarEdge optimizers en 5000H omvormer. EV: Polestar2 68kWh, laadpunt Volt Time Source 2s