Oke, de Q4 earnings call is geweest, en het belangrijkste nieuws is dat Tesla weer ~700 miljoen moet ophoesten. De volledige 2017 resultaten zijn ook beschikbaar.
Bezittingen: 28 miljard (t.o.v 23 miljard in 2016)
Schulden: 23 miljard (t.o.v. 17 miljard in 2016)
Totale omzet: 11,8 miljard (t.o.v. 7 miljard)
-waarvan auto's: 9,6 mil (2016: 6,4 mil)
-waarvan energie: 1,1 mil (2016: 0,1 mil)
-overig: 1 miljard (0,5 miljard)
Directe kosten: 9,5 miljard (t.o.v. 5,5 miljard)
-kosten auto: 7,4 miljard (t.o.v. 4,8 miljard)
-kosten energie: 0,9 miljard (t.o.v. 0,2 miljard)
-overig (superchargers/service): 1,2 mil (0,5 mil)
Bruto winst: 2,2 miljard (t.o.v. 1,6 miljard)
R&D kosten: 1,4 miljard (2016: 0,8 miljard)
Vaste kosten: 2,5 miljard (2016: 1,5 miljard)
Netto winst: -2,2 miljard (2016: 0,8 miljard)
Verder is de verwachting nog steeds dat
5k/week in Q2 gehaald wordt en dat er steeds meer superchargers en service centers worden geïnstalleerd. Opvallend is dat de energie producten nog steeds winstgevend zijn, ondanks de tegenvallende resultaten van SolarCity. Tesla wil focussen op de 'high-margins' producten van SolarCity. Oftewel, directe verkoop van zonnepanelen en Solar Roof. Dat betekent dat het leasen van zonnepanelen sterk wordt vermindert. De productiecapaciteit van Gigafactory 2 is 150,000 zonnepaneleninstallaties per jaar en dat hopen ze in 2019 te behalen. Er is een backlog van meer dan een jaar en dat verwachten ze dat dat zo blijft in 2018.
Interessante quotes van de webcast:
Elon:
Over de Model 3 battery production:
"Of the four (battery) zones, two of them flat out didn't work. So, we had to do what would normally be maybe an 18-month development cycle for a production system of that scale and complexity, and try to do that in basically six months.
And we've tackled that on multiple levels, so we have a design for a new automated system for Zone 1 and 2 that is being led by our Tesla Grohmann team. It's an excellent design. All the other work that they've done has performed to spec, and we expect a single Tesla Grohmann line to be equivalent to three, if not four, of the current lines that we have and be smaller, which is kind of amazing.
Our semi-automatic (Model 3) line is exceeding all three of the automatic lines right now; and that is something that we're able to scale quite rapidly."
Straubel:
"These are, as Elon said, semi-auto lines where we have people that are moving materials, perhaps between the machines, that are actually performing the operations.
Elon: "Yes. We expect the new automated lines to arrive next month in March, and then it's already tested; it's working in Germany. So, that's got to be disassembled, brought over to the Gigafactory, and re-assembled and then brought into operation at the Gigafactory. It's not a question of whether it works or not. It's just a question of disassembly, transport, and reassembly. With alleviating that constraint, that's what gets us to the roughly 2,500 unit per week production rate.
And I think we can get 10,000 vehicles a week out of Fremont without creating really any new buildings of significance in the existing space.
We are looking at building tunnels, using
The Boring Company's thing, because we have, for example, our seats production is at a separate building on Page. And we have a bunch of trucks moving seats back and forth between both the primary Fremont production and the seat factory. And we actually get constrained on how many trucks can we dock and undock at the seat factory, which is only, I don't know, half a mile or a mile away from the vehicle plant. So it'll be pretty easy to just have a tunnel, do an automated conveyance from seats to the factory."
Over de Model Y:
"The 1 million unit target (per year) is still in play"
Over de Tesla Semi productie:
"I think Tesla is going to grow at an average of roughly 30% a year. So if you take four years (eind 2023), I think,
100,000 units a year (voor de Semi) is a reasonable expectation. Maybe more. I think we might be able to exceed the specs that we unveiled last year too, which is pretty exciting."
Elon over waarom Tesla geen Lidar gebruikt:
"I think it's pretty obvious that the road system is geared towards passive optical. We have to solve passive optical image recognition, extremely well in order to be able to drive in any given environment and the changing environment. At the point at which you have solved it extremely well, what is the point in having active optical, meaning lidar; which cannot read signs; in my view, it is a crutch that will drive companies to a local maximum that they will find very difficult to get out of."
Elon over de ontwikkelingen van de software:
"I am pretty excited about how much progress we're making on the neural net front. It's one of those things that's kind of exponential where the progress doesn't seem like much, and suddenly wow. That's been my observation generally with AI stuff.
And you look at say something like what Google DeepMind did with AlphaGo. It went from not being able to beat even a pretty good Go player to something that could beat the European champion, then it could beat the world champion, then it could thrash the world champion, then it could thrash everyone simultaneously. Then they made AlphaZero, which could thrash AlphaGo, and where it's just learning against itself, was better than all the world's human experts.
It's going to kind of be like that for self-driving. It will feel like well this is a lame driver, lame driver. Like okay, that's a pretty good driver. Like holy cow, this driver's good. It'll be like that. I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in six months at the outside."
"The car industry thinks they're really good at manufacturing. And actually they are quite good at manufacturing, but they just don't realize just how much potential there is for improvement. It's way more than they think.
It sounds like some of the fastest car factories produce a car maybe every 25 seconds. That sounds fast. But that's only 0.2 meters per second. Like grandma with a walker can exceed the speed of the fastest production line we're in, so really not that fast. Walking speed is one meter per second, so five times faster than the fastest production line on earth. Why shouldn't it at least be jogging speed? I mean in the limit, companies should start caring about the aero drag in the factory, which that's maybe around 20 miles or 30 miles an hour, or call it 30 kilometers an hour, 40 kilometers an hour. It's like, stuff should be moving at that speed."
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