Graphics market turns on a dime
Its a game of leapfrog
RAHUL IS AT IT again, this time
talking about video cards.
His point, paraphrased heavily, is that one company is usually dominant, but rarely does the other side totally fail.
I would say that he is right, and there is usually a dominant company, and being number two tends to spur the other side to overcompensate on the next generation. I would add that there are two things that he didn't mention, ATIs upcoming chipset resurgence, and more importantly, attitude.
Last June at Computex, when ATI was nearing the bottom of its misery, it knew what was on the near term chipset horizon. I6 also knew that to be successful, it needed to buckle down and take things seriously. Back at ATI's secret mountain fortress, it was in the midst of that, and the 3200 is the first bit that poked its head out. I hear the 600 series chipsets will take that to the next level.
ATI got caught with their pants down on a platform level, and NVidia has been toying with them since. ATI has a similar platform in the works, and when they get it out the door for real instead of a piecemeal trickle, there will be parity again. I am thinking fall will be a brand new ballgame, and we will know at Computex.
The next matter is attitude, and it may prove to be the most important element in the chipset business. Nvidia has lots of it, and took advantage of its massive lead with SLI to milk as much money as it could from system builders and people wanting to be on the SLI train. This created resentment. It also used it to wedge open doors. This created more resentment.
Part of that resentment is Intel. Nvidia is in tight with AMD, and Intel is constantly flip-flopping as to which green enemy should be number one on the list. You many have noticed that Intel mobos are Crossfire capable but not SLI. Right now, AMD owns gaming and Intel is, umm, doing very well among gamers who opt for Dell. In two months, that is going to change quite radically.
And who will benefit from this? ATI, mainly because it is not Nvidia. If it takes the next step and unbreaks the drivers for SIS and Via, you have a potential for a large market shift. Until Nvidia leapfrogs again, and ATI cops an attitude, it may be all its game.
Of course, all this is dependent on one side or the other not pulling a 5800, that would override any advantage mere market strategy can bring. It looks like ATI got the message and will be back on all fronts. Will Nvidia move the war far enough to make the point moot again? Tune in this time next year for an answer. µ