En toch weer even terug naar Prigozhin en zijn mars naar Moskou, of beter, de reactie van Poetin op die mars, of beter, de afwezigheid van de reactie van Poetin erop.
Ja, het is duidelijk komkommertijd, maar desondanks geeft deze info een mooi kijkje in de Kremlin keuken.
Het artikel in de Washington post is onder anderen van de hand van Catherine Belton, iemand die ik, na haar boek te hebben gelezen, hoog heb zitten.
Hierbij het artikel gedeeld, en hieronder wat kenmerkende fragmenten:
Putin appeared paralyzed and unable to act in first hours of rebellion
https://wapo.st/44G2UiC
Nu is het lastig zoeken in dat Belton-boek, maar zij heeft meerdere crises in Poetins loopbaan beschreven waarin we het in dit artikel beschreven gedrag terug kunnen lezen. Doet een crisis zich plotseling voor dan lijkt Poetin uit het veld geslagen te worden en kan het soms tot dagen erna duren totdat hij met een reactie komt. Die reactie is dan vanuit bestuursoptiek rijkelijk laat.
Zo ook deze Wagner crisis. En die kwam niet eens onverwacht. De Russische veiligheidsdienst had hem enkele dagen ervoor hiervoor al gewaarschuwd. Toen het dan gebeurde kwam Poetin niet tot een punt:
Putin had time to take the decision to liquidate [the rebellion] and arrest the organizers” said one of the European security officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. “Then when it began to happen, there was paralysis on all levels … There was absolute dismay and confusion. For a long time, they did not know how to react.
Door de afwezigheid van orders van de top begon het Kremlin maar zelf te acteren. Al was dat rijkelijk laat, omdat de Wagner al in Rostov waren gearriveerd..
The lack of orders from the Kremlin’s top command left local officials to decide for themselves how to act, according to the European security officials, when Prigozhin’s Wagner troops stunned the world by entering the southern Russian city of Rostov in the early hours of June 24, seizing control of the Russian military’s main command center there, and then moved into the city of Voronezh, before heading further north toward Moscow.
De meegaande houding van veel lokale officials in Rusland vond zijn oorsprong in het ongeloof dat Wagner niet uit het belang van Poetin zou acteren:
Many on the local level could not believe the Wagner rebellion could be happening without some degree of agreement with the Kremlin, the security officials said — despite Putin’s emergency televised address to the nation on the morning of the mutiny in which he vowed tough action to stop the rebels, and despite a warrant issued for Prigozhin’s arrest for “incitement to insurrection” on the eve of his march to Moscow.
Hieraan kunnen we dus zien dat de situatie in Rusland zo bewegelijk is geworden dat individuele Russen het niet meer kunnen bijbenen. Ook leidt het nog tot een ander conclusie:
The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it the same situation at the local level and even worse.
Met ook weer de al eerder aangehaalde kloof in de militaire top en die van de veiligheidsdiensten:
The disarray in the Kremlin also reflects a deepening divide inside Russia’s security and military establishment over the conduct of the war in Ukraine, with many including in the upper reaches of the security services and military supporting Prigozhin’s drive to oust Russia’s top military leadership, the European security officials said.
Many in the rank and file of the Russian army also wanted Prigozhin to succeed in forcing change at the top of the Russian military, believing that then “it would become easier for them to fight,” this official said.
But others in the security establishment were horrified at the mutiny attempt, and at the Kremlin’s toothless reaction, convinced it was leading Russia toward a period of deep turmoil, officials said.
Hoe dan ook, de Russische leiding had eerst geen idee hoe te reageren. Zoals een senior Russische diplomaat het omschreef:
There was disarray. You could argue about the depth of it, but there really was lack of agreement.We heard all these statements. They were not always consistent … For some time, they did not know how to react,” he said. Putin had vowed to crush the rebellion on the morning the rebellion began but by the time he finally emerged in public more than 48 hours later, he said all steps had been taken on his “direct order” to avoid major bloodshed.
En die kloof lijkt nu duurzaam aanwezig:
Members of the Russian elite said the division over the conduct of the war and its handling by the Russian military leadership, will continue, despite a public relations drive by the Kremlin to demonstrate Putin is in control and the start of a campaign to purge the ranks of the Russian military of critics and Prigozhin’s supporters among Russian ultranationalists.
De Arrestatie van Girkin illustreert hoe kwetsbaar Poetin is geworden:
Putin showed himself to be a person who is not able to make serious, important and quick decisions in critical situations.
[..]
This was not understood by most of the Russian population. But it was very well understood by Putin’s elite. He is no longer the guarantor of their security and the preservation of the system.
Russia is a country of mafia rules. And Putin made an unforgivable mistake,” said a senior Moscow financier with ties to the Russian intelligence services. “He lost his reputation as the toughest man in town.
De verwevenheid tussen mercenary groups als Wagner en de Russische staat hebben een onbestuurbaar geheel gecreëerd zodra de belangen van al die partijen niet meer met elkaar in lijn liggen:
The intertwining of Wagner with the interests of Russian intelligence, with its upper ranks staffed with former members of Russian military intelligence, and its leading role in operations in Syria, Libya and across Africa, where it gained access to extensive mining rights, has meant it was impossible for Putin to swiftly bring the curtain down on Prigozhin’s operations. Prigozhin “worked for more than 20 years for Putin’s team. He did a lot for their interests in a whole series of countries. He has a huge amount of information...
Een westerse veiligheidsdienst official zei het zo:
They created a monster for themselves
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