Tens schreef op zaterdag 3 september 2022 @ 13:07:
[...]
Numeriek overwicht zal lastig zijn voor UA, daarom is een groot offensief bijna onmogelijk. Wat ze nu doen, RU troepen verzwakken door bevo/bases en opslag te raken kost weinig eigen troepen en zal uiteindelijk leiden tot RU troepen die er achter komen dat er geen bevoorrading meer komt.
Ja, alleen het offensief wat je nu ziet is in wezen al een teruggeschaalde ambitie dan de oorspronkelijke plannen van UA. Je zal de Russen moeten zien te verleiden om hun voorraden op te maken. Merkwaardige is dat er zoveel Russische tanks worden uitgeschakeld.
Het meest geniale zou zijn als de Russen verleidt worden een groot tegenoffensief te starten. Dat is wat deze vrijwilliger van de zogenaamde LPR-krachten vreest:
LPR volunteer Murz who is heavily involved with establishing communications in the so-called Donbass Republics publishes his prediction on what might follow Ukrainian offensive in Kherson. While confident Ukraine will not succeed here (debatable), he shows an interesting point that Russia will not be able to capitalise on this, either due to its severely lacking supply of competent servicemen and love for presenting their reports in a majorly unrealistic way.
Hij zegt dit:
The saddest consequence for us of the Ukrainian “offensive”, which ours in most places will most likely be able to repulse, will be that our generals who will be informed that they have chopped a billion ukrops (adding a zero at each next level of reports), will decide “Aha! We have knocked out all their reserves! It’s time for us to attack ourselves!”.
But in this case we are talking about how the declared “heaps of mowed ukrops” will impress our society of anonymous commanders, and it will decide that it is possible to attack. And it will throw into the offensive all the remnants of the infantry and poorly trained reserves. There are not enough trained motorised and tank reserves in order to conduct at least some kind of encirclement operation, and there won’t be for a long time, so they will try to throw into attacks anyone who is at hand, trying to compensate for the sad average quality and even more sad average controllability of our infantry on the battlefield.
Hij blijft nog even doorgaan op de kwalitatieve tekorten van het Russische leger. Kortweg komt het er op neer dat hij geen enkele (counter)offensieve mogelijkheden ziet voor Rusland. Wel interessant om een bron uit het vuur te horen:
You see the situation when in the DPR, for example, ours are firing at the Ukrainian AGS from the “Giatsint” can be presented to the readers of the “patriotic press” as “Suppressive fire superiority”, but a professional will clutch his head from these news. This indicates that:
a. the infantry is increasingly unable to use its own heavy group weapons (which has already been written about many times)
b. battalion 120-mm mortars and brigade artillery groups fail to support their infantry for one reason or another (training / accuracy of fire, communication / interaction, or something else)
c. the resource of our longest 152-mm barrels is wasted for trifles instead of counter-battery at “777” and other targets more significant than an AGS squad.
Als communicatieman merkt hij op dat het Russische leger qua communicatiecapaciteit een tekort heeft:
When I receive information from the Russian Federation about how many new “volunteer battalions” are being formed there, my hair stands on end. The question immediately arises: “Where will you get the communications chiefs for these battalions?” There are none. None. Just recently, in one wonderful chat, a person was looking for a chief of communications, right about the battalion level, for a generally very much combat-ready unit. I am not the only signalman in this chat, and we told him in unison – “There are NO SIGNALMEN AND WILL NOT BE!” And one of my colleagues added, “You do it yourself, you find an embryo and grow it as best you can.”
Het lijkt wel een discussie tussen projectmanagers en engineers

And what will these volunteer battalions be without digital closed radio communications working 24/7? An uncontrollable crowd of deer, which the Ukrainians, actively playing “from defense”, will very quickly send to cemeteries and hospitals. What will be the advance payment for the “3rd Army Corps” glorified by Shurygin, the state of communication in which is senseless to try to describe to those who have not seen it – people simply will not believe that this is happening? And it is happening, it is happening. The Corps will be a huge, monstrous, unruly mob of deer.
Daarnaast is het met de training hopeloos gesteld, kwaliteit van de troepen is waardeloos
It’s all senseless to tell those who have not seen such things being performed by our military men alive. Well, that is, I saw Debaltseve, and I no longer laugh in this circus and finally I’m not surprised. I saw tanks going into battle with empty containers of dynamic protection, I saw people who came to the service yesterday, and today they are already being given an assault rifle and grenade launchers, three of them are selected as specialists, also a platoon commander, and they go into battle. And we were leading them, in fact, three officers – a physician, a signalman and a seriously wounded political officer, a 60-year-old Astrakhan Cossack, who was being transported in the troop compartment of an infantry fighting vehicle, in the tower of which I was riding, wondering how I, with one non-working hand, would pull Petrovich out of troop compartment if they hit us.
Kortom: misschien kan UA maar beter heel zwart nieuws naar buiten brengen om het Kremlin tot offensief te verleiden.