roflexx schreef op woensdag 24 november 2021 @ 20:36:
IS THE 2022 BULL MARKET THE FINAL CYCLE?
I believe these catalysts need to be considered when theorizing how Bitcoin may behave over the coming years. We live in truly extraordinary times, be prepared for anything.
Did anyone have nation state adoption and corporate treasury asset on their 2020 and 2021 Bitcoin bingo cards?
Irrespective of when we experience the violent repricing event upwards, I think the bear markets have already changed. I expect the traditional 18-month bear market with a 85% correction to look more like what we’ve seen over the May to July time period.
Why this bitcoin price bull run could be the market cycle that takes us from gradually to suddenly reaching hyperbitcoinization.
I’m expecting bear markets to look more like mini, four- to six-month corrections of 40% to 65% in size.
The most recent 55% drawdown can serve as a proxy of what I expect bitcoin’s bear markets to look like under this new paradigm. This pullback, or mini bear market, was actually triggered by a black swan event where the second-largest economy and country, which controlled 60% of hash power, banned Bitcoin mining. Each 40% to 50% pullback gives the big money a chance to accumulate bitcoin. The new Valkyrie ETF ticker symbol is called BTFD, shorthand for “buy the fucking dip” — I expect every 40% to 50% pull back to be heavily bid by a new pension fund, corporation or nation state needing to allocate to Bitcoin and they will simply step in and BTFD.
I think the only catalyst that could plunge bitcoin into a prolonged 12-to-18-month, 85% bear market would be something catastrophic. This would only slow bitcoin down and look something like a coordinated G7 bitcoin ban, or an ‘’internet and power apocalypse’’ that the World Economic Forum is “simulating” could happen.
It’s worth noting that no disruptive technology that challenges the status quo gets openly adopted by its competitors.
It’s important to not underestimate to what lengths the central banking cabal will go to slow down Bitcoin’s adoption when it feels threatened; more on this in part four, where I will explore the separation of money and state and the war on reality.
I’m writing this article to caution anyone who may be attempting to trade this 2021 to 2022 bull market. I’ve encountered many people who think they’ve figured out the secret to the game and are going to try and time and trade this market, based upon all of these ‘’models’’ that have emerged since the 2018 bull run.
Whenever we do experience this model-breaking bull run, I think it’ll be too hard to ignore Bitcoin. The sight of a six-figure candle will leave everyone in awe and frantically scrambling to buy bitcoin as it becomes so obvious.
People will be selling their real estate for a 50% premium to get some sats. Exchanges will be all bought out of BTC as the wealthy pay exorbitant premiums to accumulate some precious sats. Governments too may come to the realization that it’s a matter of national security to accumulate all of the available satoshis on exchanges. Imagine selling a good portion of your stack at $288,000 because “stock to flow bro,” the bitcoin moons and when you try to repurchase, there are no sellers — OOOOFFFFFFF.
The fiat titanic has hit the iceberg, it’s sinking and bitcoin is your only life raft. You don’t sell your life raft.
Over the coming years you will see many signals that in prior bitcoin bull runs would be considered “top indicators.” Rather, in this new paradigm, these watershed moments will just be a sign of Bitcoin adoption accelerating at a rapid rate as the majority come onboard.