17:00
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Brazil vs Ecuador (BO3)
my bet: Very High Brazil
recommended bet: High Brazil
risk level: Low
The skill difference in players between Brazil and Ecuador is TREMENDOUS! No way Brazil will lose this.. Seriously: NO frigging WAY! Get your free skins while they are hot
19:00
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Dignitas vs Virtus Pro (BO1-Overpass)
my bet: Skip
recommended bet: Skip
risk level: Very High
Dignitas is out for a spot in the Finals of this tournament, so that leaves one to wonder how much they will want this win.. Whereas VP could definitly benefit from a win here to get better seeding. So I expect VP to bring their A-game. This is the main reason why I would suggest betting on VP, cause besides that little fact this is a very 50-50 match. Both teams are decent to pretty good on Overpass and I'm guessing whoever gets to start on CT-side will have the momentum in their favor.
Unfortunately odds aren't good for a low bet on VP so the only logical thing to do is skipping.
PS: Also keep in mind that Dignitas have been victim of DDOS'ing. This makes betting on them always a bit extra risky as they have lost games purely due to DDOS..
Epsilon vs Piter (BO3)
my bet: Low/Med Piter
recommended bet: Skip or Low Piter
risk level: High
Holy moly at these odds on csgolounge! Piter is underdog? I thought they would be overdog.. Weird! Ok, some info regarding the teams:
The only reason I can think of why Epsilon is overdog is cause Piter performed really bad at their last LAN. But the thing is, Piter ALWAYS sucks at LAN's.. Online they seem to be able to unleash their real potential; and potential they have! (PS: this game is online!)
Epsilon has been playing pretty well lately and have taken a few suprising wins of teams like ESC and LDLC Blue, plus also taking a map of GPlay. Therefore I think this will be a close game, but odds being 60-40 on csgolounge in favor of Epsilon is just strange! In my opinion odds should be 45-55 (Eps-Piter) Therefore, a Low/Medium bet on Piter; high risk, fellas!
EDIT: Odds are shifting more in favor of Piter at the moment. (55-45 | Eps-Piter) If odds get to 50% or above for Piter I will refrain from betting as the possible profit doesn't outweigh the big risk in my opinion. There are better bets to be made with these skins.
20:00
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Dignitas vs Fnatic (BO1-Mirage)
my bet: Skip
recommended bet: Skip or Junk-bet Dig (inventory clear)
risk level: High
Fnatic is looking unbeatable lately. Seeing that the map is Mirage and they play versus a Tier 2 team I can't imagine them losing.. However, that Tier 2 team happens to be Dignitas and they sure can upset! As Fnatic hasn't played any competitive matches over the weekend and odds are crap I'm refraining from betting.
EnvyUs vs NiP (BO1-Cache)
my bet: Skip
recommended bet: Skippy the Bushkangaroo
risk level: Very High
EnvyUs will be tired from their flight back home to France, after performing at the Starladder LAN finals this weekend. They made it to the finals, but with some very questionable results along the way.. But, at least the map is slightly in Envy's favor.
NiP have been very inconsistent and might really wreck EnvyUs or might get stomped. Too be honest I really believe this won't be a close match at all. In whose favor unfortunately I can't forsee.. I'd be leaning more towards a NiP bet here, but trust me lads, skip this one.
Virtus Pro vs Titan (BO1-Mirage)
my bet: Skip
recommended bet: Skip
risk level: Very High
2 of the most inconsistent Tier 1 teams... Betting on this is cointossing. I can give you 1 stat, but in the end doesn't mean anything: VP won 80% of the games on Mirage vs Titan. Just hold your breath and slowly walk away from this one as well..
PS: You guys might think: "This guy's analyses are just skipping games etc.." . But yeah, at the moment there aren't very much teams really holding their shit together. There is a lot of inconsistency and ups/downs from players. Only Fnatic and TSM are generaly safe bets. With the exception of these 2 teams, it is 1 big mean Sharknado. With some teams standing out the one week, other teams the other week.
21:00
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Titan vs Dignitas (BO1-Cobblestone)
my bet: Medium Titan
recommended bet: Skip or Low/Med Titan
risk level: High
Normally this is a map I hate to bet on as this is one of the maps that has the most upsets happen upon. BUT, Titan is actually quite good on Cobblestone. They have a 64% winrate on Cobble versus a 57% winrate of Dignitas.
I believe that Titan will really try to go for a big score in this game as a "warm-up" for their next game vs NiP. With KennyS slowly returning to his former form and aPEX being a beast as of late, I wonder if Dignitas will be able to come up with any answers.
Remember, it is a BO1 and Dignitas is able to upset T1 teams: risk is high!
EDIT: I have decided to go with Dignitas due to MAJOR odds! (75-25 | Titan-Dig) If Dignitas comes up with answers or if aPEX and KennyS are out of it, Dignitas can take it... Remember it's Cobblestone!
NiP vs X6tence (BO2)
my bet: Very High NiP
recommended bet: High NiP
risk level: Low/Medium
NiP, although very inconsistent lately, won't lose 2 maps in a row versus a Tier 3 team. NiP has WAY better individual players, that's a given. X6tence might be able to take 1 map by the skin of their teeth; but a second map will never happen! In my opinion the worst that can happen with betting NiP is a draw, which means: skins returned. (Almost) no way of losing boys
22:00
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Mouz vs EnvyUs (BO1-Mirage)
my bet: Medium/high Mouz
recommended bet: Low/Med Mouz
risk level: High
EnvyUs is probably still digesting their rough loss versus Navi at Starladder LAN-finals yesterday. Today they are flying back to France and they will be tired and won't be able to get much play in. On top of that they are playing on Mirage, one of their worst maps.
In the other corner we have Mouz who have been doing upsets left and right. Mirage is probably their favorite map and with that one of their best. They have been showing amazing plays lately and I won't be suprised if EnvyUs doesn't even get to double digits in rounds won!
23:00
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NiP vs Titan (BO1-Cache)
my bet: Low on Titan if odds <45% for Titan. Otherwise skip
recommended bet: Low on Titan if odds <45% for Titan. Otherwise skip
risk level: Very High
These are 2 very inconsistent teams going head to head in a BO1... So without saying, betting on this is very risky. However, how odds are looking at the moment on csgolounge a low bet on Titan isn't bad at all. Titan has been crawling their way out of the major hole they dug themselves in and KennyS has been showing that he still has his magic. I'd also like to give some attention to aPEX. He has identified the Titan-struggle and has been stepping up massively to keep the team's head above water! If KennyS and aPEX are on point... Oh boy!
NiP have been struggling ever since they changed their In-Game Leader. The days of glorious victories and roflstomps have been replaced by bad reads on enemy plays and barely being able to pull wins. Luckily for NiP their team has all very talented fraggers. If NiP searches and takes the duels they surely can take this game home.
Nawoord:
Jow mannen, na een hectische week ben ik er terug!
Ik heb nog lekker wat gebet deze week wanneer ik tijd had, en best wel puike winsten geboekt. Ik was dus begonnen 3 weken geleden met een 6,65 Dollar skin. Momenteel sta ik op 350 Dollar winst! Niet slecht al zeg ik het zelf!

Al moet ik ook zeggen dat ik op 500 Dollar winst heb gestaan, maar door 2 big bets te verliezen (echt belachelijk veel pech..) stond ik plots terug op 150 Dollar winst.

Dus dit weekend, m'n weg even terug naar boven liggen grinden. Dit om maar aan te tonen dat het snel kan keren..
Maar ik ben er dus terug om jullie wat bij te staan in het vergaren van jullie fortuin! Lez get dem skinz!
Edit: added EnvyUs vs NiP @ 20:00
added Virtus Pro vs Titan @ 20:00
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Voor 22% gewijzigd door
Verwijderd op 22-06-2015 19:09
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