Zelf volg ik Phillips O'Brien (
substack). Phillips steekt zijn mening niet onder stoelen of banken. Kom je nu op de landingspagina van zijn substack dan zie je een 300 logo (de film over de Battle of Thermopylae, waarin klein Grieks leger in een bergpas een groot Persisch leger vertraagde). De 300 verfilming zag hij blijkbaar als verzinnebeelding voor het mannelijke testosteron. Het was de header voor een artikel over de testosteron toediening in het Amerikaanse leger. De titel van het artikel:
Bravery Does Not Win Wars en de ondertitel:
Even With Extra Testosterone Supplements
Ik hoop zo de man wat gekenschetst te hebben. Om zijn uitgesprokenheid (kan ook een achilleshiel zijn) was ik wel benieuwd naar zijn observaties over wat er met Federov is gebeurd. Net als jullie allemaal kon ik dit verhaal niet goed begrijpen. Het zegt iets over Zelenskyy, dit is niet de eerste keer dat hij te snel een onverstandig besluit heeft genomen dat hij later na weerstand bij de Oekraïners heeft moeten terugdraaien. Ik refereer hierbij aan dat de anti-corruptie bureau's in Juli 2025 hun onafhankelijkheid dreigden kwijt te raken doordat ze onder onder het gezag van de Oekraïense procureur-generaal werden geschoven en later het moeizame op afstand zetten van zijn chief of staff Andriy Yermak in November 2025. Allemaal goed na te lezen in dit topic. Bij dit ontslag van Mykhailo Fedorov zien we opnieuw een schielijke beslissing die precies het tegenovergestelde is van wat verstandig zou zijn geweest.
Voor het kader, deze reactie is van gisteren. Aan wat hier vandaag is gemeld voegt het stuk denk ik niet veel info toe, het gaat even om zijn inzichten erover. Hij zit net als wij op afstand, maar heeft wel zijn netwerken.
The Worst Week For Ukraine In Years. Can It Become The Best?
https://phillipspobrien.s...update-194-the-worst-weekI have had many requests to discuss the removal of Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, not least in this week’s AMA. However, I wanted to hold off until this update to see how issues were developing. This is still a fast-moving and chaotic story, and the fallout will only be known in a few days/weeks. For instance, it seems that the command of General Oleksandr Syrskyi is now hanging by a thread—and one of the reasons Fedorov was removed by President Zelensky was supposedly to protect Syrskyi. There is even talk that Fedorov could be reinstated in some position.
Deze post zet dus een stapje terug ten opzichte van de meest recente ontwikkelingen van vandaag. In het weekend waren er in ieder geval gesprekken:
https://x.com/FedorovMykh.../2078539676441309661?s=20Also, Zelensky hinted last night that, after all the mass protests, which stretched from Ukrainian civil society to parts of the armed forces, that change was coming. So are we witnessing the worst week for Ukraine in years turning into one of the best?
Well, let’s start with why it was the worst? Well as this is being written, Fedorov is still out. As Defense Minister Fedorov was a key part in the efforts to modernize, re-equip and ultimately reimagine the structure and conduct of the Ukrainian armed forces. Like many who have contacts in Ukraine, I had heard for a while that he and Syrskyi were quarreling, that forces which preferred the old, corrupt ways of doing business were angry at him, and even that Zelensky was growing jealous of Fedorov’s increasing popularity. However, I never thought he would be fired—his successes seemed so manifest that I thought in the end it could not happen. The first time I came across such a report, I tried to wish it away.
However, my wishing, not surprisingly, was irrelevant and a few days later, he was out. To understand why this is such a terrible move, it is important to understand what made Fedorov so important, why the reasons for his removal are terrible signs for the Zelensky government, and where we might go from here. So, this update will mostly be about this move.
Phillips gaat in detail over waarom Federov zo uitzonderlijk is. Daar hebben we denk ik een beeld bij. Ik laat het even bij zijn volgende uitspraak. De man die dit zegt heeft er zijn vak van gemaakt om de kijken hoe oorlogen gewonnen worden door je beschikbare resources zo strategisch mogelijk in te zetten:
Fedorov revealed himself to be the most effective defense minister on the planet. He seemed to choose all the right priorities for Ukraine and improved performance in them all.
Voor we hem teveel eer geven, Oekraïne was al onderweg:
Now, Fedorov did not start from a blank sheet. Ukrainian strategy had been moving in this direction before he became defense minister. There had been an understanding of the importance of increasing drone production, of decreasing Ukrainian casualties and raising Russian ones under accelerated attrition, of the importance of the long-range/mid-range strike campaign etc. However he understood all of it, and provided energy and direction that had been lacking.
In het onderstaan lijkt de stage te worden gezet voor wat we deze week hebben zien gebeuren:
And, unlike earlier defense ministers, he was willing to go after corruption—hard. He also brought in the most ambitious attempt to improve the pay and conditions for Ukrainian soldiers that has ever been attempted.
All of this brought him into conflict with older, Soviet-influenced elements in the armed forces, most prominently Syrskyi. The two looked at the war completely differently. Syrskyi wanted more soldiers for tactical operations to fight over every village, and Fedorov looked to the big picture.
And the relationship between Zelensky and Fedorov also became strained. I have never been one of those to overly praise Zelensky because as a war leader he has strengths and real weaknesses. The corruption scandal of last summer showed many of the weaknesses.
Phillips grijpt vervolgens terug op een van zijn eerdere posts die rond de moeilijkheden met de anti-corruptie bureau's in juli 2025 was geplaatst. Andriy Yermak was toen nog in functie:
Basically Zelensky liked backing corrupt and inefficient cronies like Yermak and Syrskyi, and at one point threatened a political crisis in doing so. Here is a quote from that piece. The “he” in the first sentence is Zelensky.
The key reason is that he has seemingly prioritized loyalty over competence, and given a great deal of power to people who are of debatable abilities. The two most obvious, and they are not alone, are Andrii Yermak, the head of Zelensky’s office and Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander in chief of the armed forces.
Yermak is the most controversial. Arguably the most powerful person in Ukraine after Zelensky, its very difficult to have a conversation in the country without someone complaining of his personalization of power and the damage he has (allegedly) done to the war effort. Yermak has seen other major figures go (Danilov, Zaluzhny, Resnikov, etc) while his power has grown. From what I hear there is now an unhealthy culture of trying to suck up to Yermak about many in the diplomatic community in Kyiv, as he is seen as the real power behind the throne.
Clearly, also, Yermak is serving at Zelensky’s behest and Zelensky is in no rush to replace him. If anything, Zelensky seems to like having Yermak around as everyone can blame Yermak for things that go wrong (exonerating Zelensky unconsciously).
Syrskyi is also in post, it seems, because of his loyalty to Zelensky more, many would argue, than for his competence in post.
En nu even zijn j'accuse uit het nu (gisteren dan):
In firing Fedorov and protecting Syrskyi last week, Zelensky was once again showing his worst side as a war leader. He was protecting loyal incompetence over what was better for the country. There can be no sugar coating of the pill on this.
Misschien een blessing in disguise, maar door deze week komen we er ook achter waar Mykhailo Fedorov van gemaakt is:
Fedorov, thankfully, chose not to go quietly. When his dismissal was made clear, he gave a press conference in which he outlined his vision point by point and described what he was trying to achieve.
Here is an English-language translation of the press conference, which really is too long and detailed to quote, but provides a great glimpse into why he was so important.
Een wat lang verhaal, O' Brien pakt het volgende eruit, waarin hij toegeeft dat hij Syrsky en zijn deputy ontslagen wilde hebben:
What solutions were proposed at the time? Radical personnel decisions, including replacing both the Commander-in-Chief and the Chief of the General Staff. I promised today that we needed to speak as adults. In reality, we have no other choice if we want to defeat the enemy asymmetrically and with minimal losses, in a system where strong commanders and leaders are allowed to develop rather than being suppressed, written off, sent away, reprimanded and held back. A modern organisation built around technology requires leadership in management. It involves numerous sensors, working with IT specialists and intelligent people, and attracting talent despite limited resources and the absence of high salaries. It requires an entirely different model of management.
Gelukkig was ook nu weer de Oekraiense samenleving weer vocaal over wat ze dacht. Zelenskyy heeft dus allang niet meer een carte blanche om maar te doen wat hij wil:
The reaction of Ukrainian civil society and elements of the armed services, to Fedorov’s removal showed that his vision had a wide base of support in Ukraine and that this move was not going to be quietly accepted. Ukrainians understood that Fedorov was a key part of the changes that were giving them the initiative in the war. They understood the importance of his outlook and why his fights to improve soldiers’ lives and to cut back corruption were so important. Protests started and actually grew. There were also protests from Odesa, Kharkiv, Lviv and many other Ukrainian cities (large and small).
Met het conflict binnen zijn strijdkrachten leek Zelenskyy zich geen goed raad te weten:
The dissension in the armed forces seems to have been extremely worrying for Zelensky. Many of the best and most effective units had members willing to speak up against Syrskyi and for Fedorov and at the same time, Syrskyi was pressuring them to support him.
Artikel van de
Kyiv Independent waaraan de bovenstaande alinea refereert.
Phillips' slotwoorden:
This really is a crucial moment. The firing of Fedorov, if it is allowed to stand along with the keeping of Syrskyi, will not mean that Ukraine will lose the war. However it will mean higher casualties, more corruption, less flexibility and more Soviet style thinking. I can think of nothing worse.
So right now as I am writing we are still facing the worst week of the war as we have:
Fedorov out and Syrskyi in
However the mood music seems to be heading to:
Fedorov back in some position and Syrskyi under threat.
If things evolve into:
Fedorov back and Syrskyi out
......it will be the best week for Ukraine in years.
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). Sindsdien is hij dan ook gewipt 