Even een copy van een post op reddit, hoef ik t zelf niet te typen. Is al wat ouders, maar nog steeds relevant. Voor alle angsthazen nu, hopelijk heb je er wat aan:
TLDR, dips van 20-40% in een bull run zijn meer regel dan uitzondering.
4 yr. ago
pseudoHappyHippy
A look at the historical precedent for major dips during bull runs (if you're feeling anxious, this might help you to relax)
FOCUSED-DISCUSSION
I'm going to begin with an obligatory preface: trying to predict the future using historical data and trends falls into the infamous category of technical analysis (TA), the efficacy of which many people are skeptical of (rightfully so). Nobody really knows what's going to happen next; we might be in a short-term dip that is nearly over, or a major extended dip, or even the beginnings of a bear market. I am not here to try to convince you of any of these possibilities, nor to compel you to take profits, or hold, or buy. I simply want to present some facts about the major dips that have occurred previously during bull runs for you to use as a basis to help you draw your own conclusions about where we are now.
If you don't want to read through all of this (kind of repetitive) information, feel free to skip ahead to the conclusion to see the averages of all the data, and my final takeaway.
So, we are currently 5 days into a significant dip in the price of Bitcoin (and therefore basically every other cryptocurrency). 5 days ago, BTC reached an all-time high. Since then, it has reached a local low that is about 23% down from the ATH.
Let’s take a look at all the dips during bull runs that have seen 20% or more decrease from the ATH peak directly preceding the dip (this is the 9th such dip in BTC history).
Bull run of 2010-2011
The bull run of 2010-2011 included 3 dips during the runup that were 20% dips or greater, and which followed ATHs.
November 6, 2010: A dip began after we reached an ATH on November 6 during the first BTC bull run. The lowest point of this dip was reached 1 month and 3 days later, at 50% down. 2 months and 8 days after the dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the ATH that occurred at the beginning of the dip (ie: it took 2 months and 8 days to fully recover from the dip). 3 months and 3 days after the dip began, we reached our next peak. In other words, the crest-to-crest wavelength of the dip was 3 months and 3 days.
February 12, 2011: 3 months and 3 days after the previous peak, a new ATH was reached on February 11, which was followed by the next major dip. This dip reached a low 1 month and 22 days after it began, falling by 37%. 2 months and 4 days after the dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the ATH that occurred at the beginning of the dip, and thus could be considered fully recovered. The wavelength between the peak at the beginning of the dip and the subsequent peak was 3 months and 1 day.
May 13, 2011: 3 months and 1 day after the previous peak, a new dip began following the ATH on May 13. This dip reached its low only 7 days after it began, falling by 31%. Only 12 days after the dip began, the price of BTC recovered past the ATH at the beginning of the dip. The wavelength between the peak at the beginning of the dip and the subsequent peak (which was the final peak of the 2011 bull run) was 26 days.
Bull run of 2013
The 2013 bull run is a bit out of an outlier. This is because there is no major dip anywhere during the entire runup, except for one massive correction that took almost 7 months to recover. This correction is so big that you could easily argue it was a mini bear run, surrounded on two sides by mini bull runs. Whether you see 2013 as containing two mini bull runs and a mini bear run, or just one full-sized bull run with a gigantic correction in it, is up to you. At the end of this post when I aggregate the data and calculate the averages, I'll do a version that includes this data point and another version that doesn't. Here are the details for this giant correction:
April 9, 2013: Following the new ATH reached on April 9th, a major dip occurred that bottomed out 2 months and 27 days after it began, reaching 72% down. The price of BTC recovered and surpassed the ATH 6 months and 26 days after it began. The wavelength between the peak at the start of the correction and the subsequent peak (which was the final peak of the entire 2013 run) was 7 months and 27 days.
Bull run of 2017-2018
During the bull run of 2017/2018, there were 4 dips of 20% or more that occurred after an ATH was reached.
March 3, 2017: A dip began after we reached an ATH on March 3rd. The lowest point of this dip was reached 21 days later, at about 27% down. 1 month and 23 days after the dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the ATH that occurred at the beginning of the dip. The wavelength between the beginning of the dip and the subsequent peak was 3 months and 9 days.
June 11, 2017: 3 months and 9 days after the previous peak, a new ATH was reached on June 11, which was followed by the next major dip. This dip reached a low 1 month and 5 days after it began, falling by 36%. 1 month and 24 days after the dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the ATH that occurred at the beginning of the dip. The wavelength between the peak at the beginning of the dip and the subsequent peak was 2 months and 20 days.
September 1, 2017: 2 months and 20 days after the previous peak, a new ATH was reached on September 1, which was followed by the next major dip. This dip reached a low 13 days after the dip began, falling by 34%. 1 month and 11 days after the dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the ATH that occurred at the beginning of the dip. The wavelength between the peak at the beginning of the dip and the subsequent peak was 2 months and 7 days.
November 8th, 2017: 2 months and 7 days after the previous peak, a new ATH was reached on November 8, followed by the final major dip of the 2017/2018 bull run. This dip reached its lowest point only 4 days after it began, bottoming out at 22% down. Only 7 days after this dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the ATH that was reached at the beginning of the dip, making it by far the fastest major dip during a BTC bull run to recover (the only other big bull run dip that was even close to being this short was the final dip in the 2010-2011 run; notably, both of these quick dips were the final dips before the true peaks of their respective bull runs). The wavelength between the peak at the beginning of the dip and the subsequent peak (which was the final peak of the bull run) was 1 month and 8 days.
Current bull run
January 8, 2021: We have already had one major dip this bull run, following the ATH that was reached on January 8th. The lowest point in this dip came 19 days later, when the price of BTC was about 25% down from the preceding peak. Exactly one month after the dip began, the price of BTC surpassed the price it had peaked at before the dip. The wavelength between the crest at the beginning of the dip and the subsequent crest (which is the ATH we saw 5 days ago) was 1 month and 13 days.
Conclusion
If we omit the 2013 "mini bear run" point of data, then here are the average stats for all the bull run corrections that were at least a 20% dip across Bitcoin's history:
Average: A 33% dip where the low is hit 23 days after the dip begins, and where the price recovers to what it was at the start of the dip 1 month and 11 days after the dip begins. The wavelength of this average dip is 2 months and 7 days.
To put this into perspective, if our current dip were to be exactly average in all these ways, then it would hit a low of about $39,000 on the 16th of March. It would recover to its ATH of about $58,000 on the 3rd of April, and reach its next peak on the 29th of April.
Here are the results if we include the gigantic dip of 2013:
Average: A 37% dip where the low is hit 1 month after the dip begins, and where the price recovers to what it was at the start of the dip 1 month and 29 days after the dip begins. The wavelength of this average dip is 2 months and 26 days.
To put this into perspective, if our current dip were to be exactly average in all these ways, then it would hit a low of about $36,500 on the 23rd of March. It would recover to its ATH of about $58,000 on the 21st of April, and reach its next peak on the 18th of May.
Final takeaway: Obviously, there is no reason to expect that the dip we are currently experiencing will resemble the average of all similar dips in the past. It might recover dramatically to the previous ATH within the next week like the final major dips in the 2011 and 2017 runs. It might follow the more common dip trajectory and complete a full recovery only in the next 3 to 5 weeks. Or we might even be entering the next bear market (though most TA, for what it's worth, suggests this is not the case).
In any case, if this correction is stressing you out, please realize that major dips of 20%-40% during bull runs is historically common, and that the average time it takes to recover from such dips is almost a month and a half!
I hope this helps somebody!
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